January 2007

2007 to See Attack on Iran?

Tough talk from Bush, rumblings from Likud, Ahmadinejad in need of something to rally his sagging popularity, and a US buildup in Iraq: do these add up to a potential US invasion of Iran?

No.

But add a second aircraft carrier group and the stage is set for a pre-emptive strike against Iran. While Turkey may not be forthcoming with assistance, Azerbaijan might just. US bases in Afghanistan could also provide support, as well as those in Iraq. And what of Turkmenistan? That nation's loss of Niyazov could be the US' gain as the new powers that be seek legitimacy in the form of US support.

Would a pre-emptive strike lead to war with Iran?

Maybe.

The US would need a draft to go into a formal war. Iran might be in no position to wage an offensive war after a US strike.

Terrorism?

Of course. But that's hardly going to be a change of pace. If Iran is hit, maybe Hizbollah won't be so frisky in the Middle East. But maybe also something else crazy happens.

The US was wrong about there being nuclear weapons on Cuba in 1962. The US thought they weren't there yet. They were. Had the US attacked Cuba, Castro had already insisted the weapons be used against US soldiers and targets.

I'm pretty sure Ahmadinejad would order nuclear weapons to be used against US or Israeli targets if he could in the event of a strike against Iran.

The question is, does he already have them? The US says not yet. Is it that sure it would risk being wrong?