Aohell

South Asian Scramble

Iran has an excellent opportunity to go nuclear. Oil prices are historically quite high, the USA is overextended in Afghanistan and Iraq, and Europe is wobbling on whether or not it should exert more military force outside the EU. They're going to go for it, if they have any sense, and they do.

Being a nuclear power confers great advantages. First off, nobody wants to invade you. One well-placed nuke and an entire army or, worse, fleet carrying an entire army, is wiped out. Iran's already got lots of mountains and other difficult terrains and a population ready to use them, so giving that bunch a nuclear-tipped advantage makes invading Iran a great folly.

Sanctions? Please. The USA already has sanctions against Iran. They lose nothing over USA ire when the USA is as ired as it is. European sanctions? I don't think the Iranians would care. China needs both petroleum and allies, and Iran can be both. Europe is already unsure about natural gas supplies after the recent row between Ukraine and Russia disrupted their flow, and they'll be careful not to lose yet another source of energy if at all possible. Russia itself won't like a nuclear Iran, but it does want a friendly Iran in the continuing Great Game in the Caucasus and Central Asia. A friendly nuclear Iran is preferable to a hostile non-nuclear Iran, at least in the short run. Russia's ability to project force abroad is already in question, so they may as well allow Iran to go nuclear, as it weakens USA influence in the region overall.

India is planning to expand its nuclear options by developing ICBMs. Pakistan is sure to follow. Iran would not want to be left behind. I've already speculated Iran may have acquired unsecured weapons from the former USSR, but Iran would also want to be a home-grown nuclear power in its own right to fully assert its authority in the world. Coupled with its oil reserves and strategic position relative to Persian Gulf oil traffic, it would be holding a big stick, indeed.