Aohell

Venezuela and Geopolitics

Venezuela will buy twelve military jets from Spain. While that's hardly a threat to the US directly - it's hardly likely the Venezuelans are preparing to invade the US - it is a direct threat to US interests in the region. If Venezuela is able to do whatever it wants, why not other nations formerly under the US thumb?

And if the US tries to exert its authority as it has in the past, what if Chavez cuts off that flow of oil? Venezuela supplies the US with 16% of its imported oil, and the US imports 60% of its daily petroleum consumption. The Venezuelans could easily find a market for their petrochemicals in Europe, Japan, India, or China. A Venezuealan embargo would mean 10% less gasoline available in the US without a hike in prices.

The US may be an 800-pound gorilla, but this gorilla needs an SUV to get around. It won't be able to move for long under its own power. Hugo Chavez knows this. He also knows he's got his hand on one of the pumps used to fuel that SUV - the Citgo one, to be precise.

It's not like the US is able to swat down the irritations of the Venezuelan fly. Much of its army is involved in occupation duties in Afghanistan and Iraq. If Russian and British experiences are any guide, the US will be about 11 more years in Afghanistan and 38 more years in Iraq. True, should the US get a stable government in either state and a sufficient fleet of AC-130 gunships to churn up the rebellious villages with a wall of exploding lead, it will be able to pull significant numbers of troops out of those states and detail them for use elsewhere. Of course, it would be a PR nightmare to explain how aerial massacres are somehow better than the Taliban or Sadaam Hussein, but there are some clever fellows within the Beltway and a gullible public that wants to love its president.

Barring that, Venezuela and any other oil power is free to steer its own course in the world and take regions along for the ride.

Ironically, if the US decided to abandon gasoline and switch over to biodiesel, we wouldn't care about what Venezuela did with its oil. Of course, that would mean dismantling the energy empires of ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco, and the rest of Big Oil. That won't happen. American economic history shows that industries cling to all the power and money they can. Even as they slide into irrelevance in the face of new technologies, those corporate dinosaurs refuse to evolve for the most part.

Time for a relevant quote: It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory. -- W. Edwards Deming As long as the US clings to fossil fuels, it will be locked in an unwinnable struggle to consume energy at its present rate while the rest of the world seeks an equivalent level of consumption, far outstripping what every well in the world could produce. If it frees itself from the grip of Big Oil, it can exist peacefully with its neighbors.

But to do that would mean the US would have to have a democratic revolution that doesn't get strangled in the cradle like the last one did in the 1780's. Tough choice... meanwhile, Venezuela joins the barbarians at the gate of the US empire.