Aohell

Solving the Iranian Riddle

Iran's building a nuclear bomb. No, this isn't a corroborated news story. It is that obvious, though. They've been getting pinged by the IAEA for several years over enrichment concerns and for having multiple nuclear development programs. They're cheating on the NPT and they're building a bomb.

They may already have bought bombs on the black market, let's not forget that. WIth unsecured Russian materials and close access, it's much easier for a government to buy nukes than a terrorist group. Leave that bit at speculation, though.

Let us say, though, that Iran comes up with a nuclear explosive and tests it - entering the nuclear club beyond a shadow of a doubt. Their ruler seems to be less rational than George Bush, so it looks like a hot time in the old town tonight, right?

Well, maybe not.

Let's go back to when the People's Republic of China went nuclear. The USSR didn't want Mao's boys to have nukes, but to have them forever remain junior partners in the brotherhood of Commie dictatorships. Mao wasn't having any of that and began stressing the need for his nation, and any other nation, to build nuclear weapons.

China make nukes and tested them. KABOOOM!

After the KABOOOM!, the Chinese looked over their test results and changed the song they were singing. Yes, it was right for China to have weapons. No, it was not right for anyone else to have them. They were scary. Very, very scary. For whatever it's worth, China's actually now working with North Korea to do something about their nuclear situation.

Granted, China seems to be enabling Iran to go nuclear, but it has to - they need the gas. And, perhaps, they're thinking once Iran sees results from its KABOOOM!, it'll question whether or not it's a good idea to get into a situation where one of those could land on Iran. Israel's got nukes, you know. They'd use them, too, in a Tel Aviv minute.

So maybe Iran gets nukes. Their bosses are no crazier than Mao's crew, and perhaps the nuclear weapon can bring a level of sobriety to Iran's administration not previously seen. After all, Iran has a lot to lose.

What's scariest is the prospect of someone with nothing to lose getting a nuke. Those guys don't look over test results and get nightmares about what happens if they're at ground zero of one of those mamas. Terrorists instead think about how best to get one of their fellows to pull the ripcord at ground zero in the heart of enemy territory.

Iran may take care of itself, but it's much more important to support non-proliferation activities of all types, something the Bush administration has been very lax on.