Aohell

Ahmadinejad's Poker Hand

The IAEA reported finding more highly-enriched uranium in Iran, this time at an Iranian defence facility. This is not the first time the IAEA has found traces of HEU where it should not have been in Iran.

President Ahmadinejad is not behaving in a conciliatory way. Iran does not seem to be concealing its surreptitious nuclear technological development very well. What should the world make of this?

The first question is whether or not Iran planted the HEU for the IAEA to find. Putting it in their path makes estimates of Iranian weapons development subject to questioning. If they were (x) years or months away from making a weapon with the program on the surface of things, how close are their secret programs to making a weapon? Could they already have one? If the HEU is a plant, it would be to make nations like Israel or the US hesitate before launching a pre-emptive strike.

To be sure, such strikes are nuclear only in press articles. For the US to actually use a nuclear weapon, no matter how small, would be a monstrous act in the face of no actual Iranian aggression. Same for Israel. No matter what politicians may say, nuclear options have to be off the table in any rational scenario. Disliked though he may be, Bush is still rational.

But a pre-emptive strike opens a path of potential escalation. This is something conventional wisdom says the US cannot afford. Politically, the US does not likely possess the will to commit to such an adventure, unless Iran strikes the first blow. Militarily, the US would be taking itself into a third major occupation, with consequences for its ability to make commitments to security in China, Taiwan, and the already strained situations in Afghanistan and Iraq.

What if the HEU is not planted? Nuclear weapons are easy to hide until they're detonated, and if Iran hasn't detonated any, there's no way to truly know how many it may have already created or purchased.

If Iran has nuclear weapons, why not declare them, fait accompli? Perhaps it's for similar reasons to why Israel hasn't officially declared its weapons. The US can support Israel as a nation without weapons with its current don't ask, don't tell policy. Same for Russia and China. It may be the worst-kept secret in the Middle East, but if Iran doesn't step up and officially admit them, Russia and China can be officially blind to them.

But Iran has to get word out of its nuclear capabilities to prevent a risk-taking US president from ordering an invasion. What use is a deterrent if nobody knows about it? Therefore, it has to allow evidence of its power to leak out into the press while officially proclaiming only peaceful intentions. The HEU, whether planted or not, is Iran's unofficial declaration of its intention to develop nuclear weapons, at the very least.

Bush and Ahmadinejad are playing poker. Ahmadinejad might be bluffing. To find out, Bush has to call his raise. If he doesn't, Ahmadinejad wins the round and nuclear weapons are the prize. If Bush calls, Ahmadinejad shows his cards eventually, and eventually means he wins nuclear weapons. If Bush raises the stakes, Ahmadinejad doesn't seem likely to fold - just raise Bush right back, prolonging the situation.

The only situation in which Iran doesn't get nuclear weapons is if Bush accuses Ahmadinejad of cheating, kicks the poker table over, and starts shooting up the place. Iran won't be able to develop its weapons in that event. But, then, the US wouldn't be able to afford that war if it meant the price of oil went off the charts, let alone if it entailed massive new deficits and a draft.

And that's why Ahmadinejad smiles so much these days. He's sure he's got the US beat. Let them find the HEU. Let them find the weapons, even. They can't do anything about it without bringing down the roof on their own heads. The US is already engaged in a high-stakes game in Iraq and Afghanistan, so it can't put its entire bankroll on the Iranian table, which means Iran needs only outbid the US to win.

Watch out.