Aohell

Failed State Round-Up

OK, George Bush is on the lookout for failed states because they can be havens for evil-doers. What is a failed state, though?

I'd say a failed state would have to be a place where law and order have broken down. In severe cases of breakdown, one can see a high number of IDRs (Internally Displaced Refugees). Somalia, for instance, has about 400,000 IDRs. But we already know Somalia is a mess. Iraq has 1.2 million IDRs, but, yeah, the US forces are already on the ground there. We can't re-invade Iraq to fix things there.

But there's a place in the world with an estimated 2 million IDRs. For this state, that's about 5% of its population, or one out of every 20 people has been forced from where they used to live due to turf battles between armed gangs.

Where is this failed state?

Colombia.

Right in the US' back yard, there's a massively failed state. Although the FARC and AUC factions are demobilizing and turning in their uniforms and US-made weapons, the CIA Factbook doubts they're giving up illicit activities. Those that remain active are also active in the same illicit activities, cocaine and heroin production and distribution.

Colombia produces 3.8 metric tons of heroin, which is as nothing compared to Afghanistan's 4475 metric tons or even Mexico's production of 23 metric tons of black tar heroin, which is the equivalent of 9 metric tons of regular heroin. But for cocaine, Colombia is king: 430 metric tons of blow for the US and the rest of the world. (NB: 90% of that cocaine moves through Mexico... should we check there for failed-stated-iness next?)

CIA Factbook: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html

That cocaine is what forces people off their lands. The drug-dealing factions wage war over fields and shipment routes and civilians in the crossfire have to flee their villages and head for the relative safety of larger towns. Colombia has the highest IDR population in the world, and the UNHCR report on refugees notes their IDR problem has not been getting better.

UNHCR 2005 Global Refugee Trends: http://www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/statistics/opendoc.pdf?tbl=STATISTICS&id=4486ceb12

So let's get those US assets into Colombia to fix it up right! We can't leave it the way it is!

Er, hold on there... seems like the US has been involved in Colombia. "Plan Colombia" cost over $3 billion in efforts to fight narcotics and terrorism from 2000-2005. The US has abandoned that plan. It failed to accomplish its goals.

Spraying the coca crops typically resulted only in one crop loss. Coca can produce four crops per year. Although hectares under coca cultivation did decrease in Colombia for a while, hectares under coca cultivation increased in surrounding states, so the cost and purity of cocaine on the black market remained stable. Worse, by 2004, Colombia's hectares under coca cultivation increased, in spite of stepped-up herbicide efforts.

The drugs also touched US forces stationed in Colombia. A few troops were caught, but I have to suspect that the smugglers and arms-dealers weren't just a few bad eggs. They were the tip of the iceberg, given how US military discipline seems to break down rapidly in garrison or guerrilla warfare conditions. It's the same story as in Vietnam, really. Drugs corrupted our efforts there, just like they did in Colombia and like they are probably doing right now in Afghanistan.

I won't discuss the US' use of mercenaries to conduct business and military-style operations in Colombia: that is for another investigation. I'm considering the failure of Colombia as a state. 5% of the population is displaced, the highest number of IDRs in the world. 10% unemployment. 49.2% living in the Colombian version of poverty. The Colombian per capita murder rate is surpassed only by South Africa and Iraq. Add that to the constant drug-fueled warfare, and we see a failed state.

And yet the US gave up on Colombia... Colombia had to go begging to President Bush last week. ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5081888.stm) Colombia's supposed to be the closest ally the US has in the region and, yet, they have to beg for help from their own next-door neighbor, whose demand for cocaine is causing the very failure of the state of Colombia.